Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 221.5

2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (29%) · Over at 51¢ · $20K held · ends Oct 28

Over51¢Under49¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 29%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$20.0K

Combined PnL

$56.49

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares4,342

Combined PnL+$62.01

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,787

Combined PnL-$5.51

Over — 29%Under — 71%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboardARB<$100	Underavg 51¢	$11.3K	$11.1K	-$185.6	54% 572-492 (1064)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51¢	$7.6K	$7.4K	-$222.94
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$37.34
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 49.3¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	+$88.01	54% 16863-14141 (31004)
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.3¢	$2.4K	$2.5K	+$58.45
└ Under leg	Underavg 48.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$29.56
BU BullishBarb	Overavg 49¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$61.8	38% 848-1408 (2256)
WO woshikd99CTR	Underavg 49.7¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	-$5.59	50% 31-31 (62)
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Underavg 48¢	$484.47	$373.75	-$0.28	58% 40750-29469 (70219)
└ Under leg	Underavg 48¢	$240	$247.5	+$7.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.5¢	$128.82	$126.25	-$7.78
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 47.2¢	$35.94	$35.01	-$0.5	58% 28120-20725 (48845)
IC ic4creamCTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$29	$28.71	-$0.29	59% 2611-1835 (4446)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Overavg 53¢	$22.64	$23.07	+$0.21	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$5.92	$2.82	+$0.89	57% 13138-10013 (23151)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.33	-$0.03	47% 2041-2343 (4384)

monkeymashingkeyboardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$11,313.98

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$185.6

Record

54%

572-492 (1064)

Both legs:

Under$7,579.951¢-$222.94

Over$3,734.0850¢+$37.34

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$4,057.2

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$88.01

Record

54%

16863-14141 (31004)

Both legs:

Over$2,445.6549.3¢+$58.45

Under$1,611.5548.6¢+$29.56

BullishBarb

Over

Invested

$2,375.46

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$61.8

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

woshikd99CTR

Under

Invested

$1,824.71

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$5.59

Record

50%

31-31 (62)

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$484.47

Value

$373.75

PnL

-$0.28

Record

58%

40750-29469 (70219)

Both legs:

Under$24048¢+$7.5

Over$128.8251.5¢-$7.78

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$35.94

Value

$35.01

PnL

-$0.5

Record

58%

28120-20725 (48845)

ic4creamCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29

Value

$28.71

PnL

-$0.29

Record

59%

2611-1835 (4446)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Over

Invested

$22.64

Value

$23.07

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.92

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.89

Record

57%

13138-10013 (23151)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2041-2343 (4384)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 7 top traders (29%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.