Magic vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 71¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Over71¢Under29¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$253.44

Smart Money Entry

57.5¢ → 70.5¢

+23% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over71%

Under30%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,857

Combined PnL+$399.96

Under6 traders

Total Value$329.28

Total Shares1,406

Combined PnL-$146.53

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 45¢	$2.7K	$1.8K	-$845.91	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52.9¢	$605.3	$921.23	+$315.93
└ Under leg	Underavg 45¢	$2.1K	$889.97	$-1.2K
TA takeormake	Overavg 58.9¢	$956.79	$1.3K	+$327.02	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Overavg 77¢	$1.4K	$1.1K	-$305.43	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Over leg	Overavg 77¢	$769.97	$804.97	+$35
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$585.85	$245.42	-$340.42
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 48¢	$115.05	$188	+$72.95	49% 559-583 (1142)
RO rocky42019CTR	Underavg 16.4¢	$108.63	$135.97	+$27.34	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Underavg 47¢	$294.79	$122.31	-$172.49	50% 1143-1136 (2279)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$52.68	$53.37	+$0.69	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 43¢	$10.32	$9.84	-$1.08	58% 28159-20759 (48918)
WO woshikd99CTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$6.3	$5.74	-$0.84	51% 32-31 (63)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.05	-$0.15	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,657.11

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$845.91

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Over$605.352.9¢+$315.93

Under$2,051.8145¢$-1.2K

takeormake

Over

Invested

$956.79

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$327.02

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

Anon455ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,355.82

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$305.43

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Over$769.9777¢+$35

Under$585.8546.5¢-$340.42

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$115.05

Value

$188

PnL

+$72.95

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

rocky42019CTR

Under

Invested

$108.63

Value

$135.97

PnL

+$27.34

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

mooseborzoiiCTR

Under

Invested

$294.79

Value

$122.31

PnL

-$172.49

Record

50%

1143-1136 (2279)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$52.68

Value

$53.37

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.32

Value

$9.84

PnL

-$1.08

Record

58%

28159-20759 (48918)

woshikd99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.74

PnL

-$0.84

Record

51%

32-31 (63)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 71%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.