Spread: Raptors (-8.5)

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 92¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 28

Raptors92¢Magic8¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 40%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$5.0K

Combined PnL

$1.5K

Smart Money Entry

45.6¢ → 91.5¢

+100% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors92%

Magic9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares3,239

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Magic3 traders

Total Value$106.16

Total Shares198

Combined PnL-$2.93

Raptors — 40%Magic — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Raptorsavg 45.7¢	$1.5K	$2.9K	+$1.5K	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Magicavg 57.5¢	$1.6K	$1.4K	-$240.14	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 57.5¢	$1.2K	$941.17	-$303.33
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 48.6¢	$387.91	$451.1	+$63.19
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Magicavg 45.5¢	$351.51	$383	+$31.49	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 44¢	$148.65	$195.74	+$47.09
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 45.5¢	$202.87	$187.26	-$15.61
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Magicavg 57.2¢	$191.53	$143.42	-$48.1	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 60¢	$66.88	$78.02	+$11.15
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 57.2¢	$124.65	$65.4	-$59.25
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100	Magicavg 61¢	$58.86	$59.95	+$1.09	53% 319-288 (607)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Magicavg 61¢	$39.65	$35.75	-$3.9	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
HRTrading<$100	Raptorsavg 42¢	$11.82	$21.83	+$10.01	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
AN Anon455CTR<$100	Magicavg 44¢	$10.58	$10.46	-$0.12	56% 2651-2105 (4756)

takeormake

Raptors

Invested

$1,467.6

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$1,632.4

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$240.14

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Magic$1,244.557.5¢-$303.33

Raptors$387.9148.6¢+$63.19

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$351.51

Value

$383

PnL

+$31.49

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Raptors$148.6544¢+$47.09

Magic$202.8745.5¢-$15.61

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$191.53

Value

$143.42

PnL

-$48.1

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

Both legs:

Raptors$66.8860¢+$11.15

Magic$124.6557.2¢-$59.25

RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$58.86

Value

$59.95

PnL

+$1.09

Record

53%

319-288 (607)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$39.65

Value

$35.75

PnL

-$3.9

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

HRTrading<$100

Raptors

Invested

$11.82

Value

$21.83

PnL

+$10.01

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

Anon455CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$10.58

Value

$10.46

PnL

-$0.12

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.