Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Raptors (90%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Raptors (-7.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (67%) · Magic at 10¢ · $12K held · ended Oct 28

Raptors90¢Magic10¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 10¢

-79% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors90%

Magic10%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic4 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,024

Combined PnL+$716.95

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$813.78

Total Shares911

Combined PnL+$287.76

Magic — 67%Raptors — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Raptorsavg 50.6¢	$7.3K	$6.8K	-$457.54	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 52.3¢	$3.4K	$4.8K	+$1.4K
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 50.6¢	$3.9K	$2.0K	$-1.8K
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Magicavg 46¢	$1.3K	$2.0K	+$762.68	50% 1143-1136 (2279)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51.5¢	$1.6K	$1.3K	-$306.54	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 49.8¢	$515.46	$760.1	+$244.64
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51.5¢	$1.1K	$583.34	-$551.18
AN Anon455CTR	Magicavg 51¢	$990	$1.0K	+$10	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
TA takeormake	Raptorsavg 65.2¢	$569.14	$785.66	+$216.52	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
JU justaluckydudeCTR	Magicavg 53.4¢	$114.73	$56.98	-$57.76	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Magicavg 52.2¢	$34.77	$36.8	+$2.03	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
RO rocky42019	Raptorsavg 52¢	$156	$28.12	+$71.24	42% 1675-2291 (3966)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$7,287.4

Value

$6.8K

PnL

-$457.54

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Magic$3,415.9152.3¢+$1.4K

Raptors$3,871.4850.6¢$-1.8K

mooseborzoiiCTR

Magic

Invested

$1,275.75

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$762.68

Record

50%

1143-1136 (2279)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,649.98

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$306.54

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Magic$515.4649.8¢+$244.64

Raptors$1,134.5251.5¢-$551.18

Anon455CTR

Magic

Invested

$990

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$10

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

takeormake

Raptors

Invested

$569.14

Value

$785.66

PnL

+$216.52

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

justaluckydudeCTR

Magic

Invested

$114.73

Value

$56.98

PnL

-$57.76

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$34.77

Value

$36.8

PnL

+$2.03

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

rocky42019

Raptors

Invested

$156

Value

$28.12

PnL

+$71.24

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 10%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 90%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance11.5%

10.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$770.36

Max Loss

-$100.00

870.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.