Spread: Raptors (-6.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (43%) · Raptors at 94¢ · $16K held · ended Oct 28

Raptors94¢Magic6¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 43%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.0K

Combined PnL

-$481.44

Smart Money Entry

56¢ → 94¢

+68% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors94%

Magic6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,285

Combined PnL+$154.14

Magic4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares4,214

Combined PnL-$635.58

Raptors — 43%Magic — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrRaptors 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Magicavg 46.4¢	$7.2K	$7.1K	-$141	54% 16884-14152 (31036)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 52.2¢	$3.4K	$4.2K	+$885.28
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 46.4¢	$3.8K	$2.8K	$-1.0K
SA SadSquid54333	Raptorsavg 59¢	$2.5K	$2.8K	+$293.99	60% 161-107 (268)
AN Anon455ARB<$100	Raptorsavg 51¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$86.77	56% 2651-2105 (4756)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 51¢	$1.1K	$1.5K	+$330.16
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 47.8¢	$842.71	$599.32	-$243.39
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Raptorsavg 49.8¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$199.15	49% 559-583 (1142)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 49.8¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$347.67
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 46¢	$569.87	$421.35	-$148.52
MO mooseborzoiiCTR	Magicavg 50.5¢	$2.0K	$1.4K	-$589.93	50% 1143-1136 (2279)
TA takeormake	Raptorsavg 44¢	$1.1K	$333.25	-$139.75	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
JU justaluckydudeARB<$100	Magicavg 47.2¢	$342.42	$310.65	-$31.77	54% 10476-9103 (19579)
└ Raptors leg	Raptorsavg 52¢	$144.04	$211.91	+$67.87
└ Magic leg	Magicavg 47.2¢	$198.38	$98.75	-$99.63
RO rocky42019CTR	Magicavg 45¢	$163.35	$123.42	-$39.93	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Magicavg 46.9¢	$13.28	$11.32	-$1.96	53% 3243-2909 (6152)
MI mishipolis<$100	Raptorsavg 59¢	$10.1	$10	-$0.1	50% 4446-4371 (8817)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Magicavg 47¢	$7.52	$3.76	-$3.76	43% 2996-4016 (7012)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$7,197.21

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$141

Record

54%

16884-14152 (31036)

Both legs:

Raptors$3,351.0552.2¢+$885.28

Magic$3,846.1646.4¢$-1.0K

SadSquid54333

Raptors

Invested

$2,477.91

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$293.99

Record

60%

161-107 (268)

Anon455ARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,968.65

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$86.77

Record

56%

2651-2105 (4756)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,125.9451¢+$330.16

Magic$842.7147.8¢-$243.39

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Raptors

Invested

$1,641.6

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$199.15

Record

49%

559-583 (1142)

Both legs:

Raptors$1,071.7349.8¢+$347.67

Magic$569.8746¢-$148.52

mooseborzoiiCTR

Magic

Invested

$2,037.51

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$589.93

Record

50%

1143-1136 (2279)

takeormake

Raptors

Invested

$1,075

Value

$333.25

PnL

-$139.75

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

justaluckydudeARB<$100

Magic

Invested

$342.42

Value

$310.65

PnL

-$31.77

Record

54%

10476-9103 (19579)

Both legs:

Raptors$144.0452¢+$67.87

Magic$198.3847.2¢-$99.63

rocky42019CTR

Magic

Invested

$163.35

Value

$123.42

PnL

-$39.93

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$13.28

Value

$11.32

PnL

-$1.96

Record

53%

3243-2909 (6152)

mishipolis<$100

Raptors

Invested

$10.1

Value

$10

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

4446-4371 (8817)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$7.52

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$3.76

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 94%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleRaptors 80% · 5

Aligned

ctrRaptors 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Raptors 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.