Spread: Raptors (-5.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (50%) · Magic at 52¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 28

Raptors48¢Magic52¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 50%

Total Value

$2.9K

Combined PnL

-$24.4

Smart Money Entry

52.9¢ → 52¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors48%

Magic52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic2 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares5,463

Combined PnL-$25

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$28.25

Total Shares60

Combined PnL+$0.6

Magic — 50%Raptors — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Magicavg 53¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$25	54% 572-492 (1064)
MO mooseborzoii	Magicavg 52¢	$240.77	$240.77	+$0	50% 1138-1132 (2270)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 46.5¢	$16.74	$16.56	+$0.36	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100	Raptorsavg 47¢	$11.45	$11.69	+$0.24	38% 848-1408 (2256)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Magic

Invested

$2,649.97

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$25

Record

54%

572-492 (1064)

mooseborzoii

Magic

Invested

$240.77

Value

$240.77

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1138-1132 (2270)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$16.74

Value

$16.56

PnL

+$0.36

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

BullishBarbCTR<$100

Raptors

Invested

$11.45

Value

$11.69

PnL

+$0.24

Record

38%

848-1408 (2256)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Magic

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.