Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Raptors (52%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Raptors (-4.5)

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (89%) · Magic at 48¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 28

Raptors52¢Magic48¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 89%

Total Value

$21.5K

Combined PnL

-$95.08

Smart Money Entry

48.9¢ → 48¢

-2% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors52%

Magic48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors1 trader

Total Value$10.8K

Total Shares20,850

Combined PnL+$102.39

Magic8 traders

Total Value$10.7K

Total Shares22,170

Combined PnL-$197.47

Raptors — 11%Magic — 89%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AR ArielFilipino	Raptorsavg 51¢	$10.6K	$10.8K	+$102.39	61% 96-62 (158)
TA TAIWANNUMBERONECTR	Magicavg 50¢	$5.0K	$4.8K	-$200	54% 1174-996 (2170)
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR	Magicavg 48¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$0	47% 2405-2686 (5091)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Magicavg 47.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$2.76	54% 16861-14140 (31001)
TheOneto3CTR	Magicavg 48¢	$988.8	$988.8	+$0	51% 458-438 (896)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Magicavg 48¢	$413.72	$413.72	+$0	53% 5498-4842 (10340)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Magicavg 48.7¢	$62.77	$62.68	-$0.09	58% 28114-20722 (48836)
VeryLucky888CTR	Magicavg 48¢	$719.99	$33.03	-$0	58% 40740-29467 (70207)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Magicavg 48.6¢	$12.08	$11.93	-$0.14	57% 13126-10007 (23133)

ArielFilipino

Raptors

Invested

$10,635.37

Value

$10.8K

PnL

+$102.39

Record

61%

96-62 (158)

TAIWANNUMBERONECTR

Magic

Invested

$5,000

Value

$4.8K

PnL

-$200

Record

54%

1174-996 (2170)

0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542CTR

Magic

Invested

$2,880

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

2405-2686 (5091)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Magic

Invested

$1,464.86

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$2.76

Record

54%

16861-14140 (31001)

TheOneto3CTR

Magic

Invested

$988.8

Value

$988.8

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

458-438 (896)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Magic

Invested

$413.72

Value

$413.72

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

5498-4842 (10340)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$62.77

Value

$62.68

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

28114-20722 (48836)

VeryLucky888CTR

Magic

Invested

$719.99

Value

$33.03

PnL

-$0

Record

58%

40740-29467 (70207)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$12.08

Value

$11.93

PnL

-$0.14

Record

57%

13126-10007 (23133)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 52%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.