Spread: Raptors (-3.5)

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (20%) · Raptors at 56¢ · $4K held · ends Oct 28

Raptors56¢Magic44¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

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⚠️

Avoid

Raptors

Consensus Traders

Raptors 20%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

-$21.91

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors56%

Magic45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Raptors1 trader

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,571

Combined PnL-$35.71

Magic4 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,996

Combined PnL+$13.8

Raptors — 20%Magic — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Raptorsavg 56¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$35.71	73% 3567-1310 (4877)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Magicavg 44¢	$985.41	$1.0K	+$22.3	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Magicavg 45¢	$782.58	$773.89	-$8.7	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Magicavg 45¢	$22.95	$22.95	+$0	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Magicavg 44¢	$8.5	$8.69	+$0.19	57% 13143-10017 (23160)

JAMJAMJAM4

Raptors

Invested

$1,999.76

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$35.71

Record

73%

3567-1310 (4877)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Magic

Invested

$985.41

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$22.3

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

SunlineTickerCTR

Magic

Invested

$782.58

Value

$773.89

PnL

-$8.7

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$22.95

Value

$22.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$8.5

Value

$8.69

PnL

+$0.19

Record

57%

13143-10017 (23160)

Research grade

AvoidRaptors at 56%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Raptors

1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Raptors wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.