Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Raptors (59%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Raptors (-2.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (60%) · Magic at 42¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Raptors59¢Magic41¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$2.52

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 41.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Raptors59%

Magic42%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,928

Combined PnL-$2.74

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$594.3

Total Shares1,016

Combined PnL+$5.26

Magic — 60%Raptors — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Magicavg 41.9¢	$793.43	$796.02	+$2.59	62% 4022-2463 (6485)
HO HomeRunHazard	Raptorsavg 58¢	$586.17	$591.4	+$5.23	54% 16875-14147 (31022)
DO DolphinBallerCTR	Magicavg 42¢	$420	$420	-$5	49% 85-90 (175)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Magicavg 42¢	$13.86	$13.86	-$0.33	58% 28127-20735 (48862)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Raptorsavg 58¢	$2.9	$2.9	+$0.03	47% 2067-2357 (4424)

SunlineTickerCTR

Magic

Invested

$793.43

Value

$796.02

PnL

+$2.59

Record

62%

4022-2463 (6485)

HomeRunHazard

Raptors

Invested

$586.17

Value

$591.4

PnL

+$5.23

Record

54%

16875-14147 (31022)

DolphinBallerCTR

Magic

Invested

$420

Value

$420

PnL

-$5

Record

49%

85-90 (175)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$13.86

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$0.33

Record

58%

28127-20735 (48862)

ameisgoat11<$100

Raptors

Invested

$2.9

Value

$2.9

PnL

+$0.03

Record

47%

2067-2357 (4424)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 42%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 59%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance43.7%

41.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$128.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

228.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.