Spread: Raptors (-1.5)
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Raptors (40%) · Raptors at 97¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Raptors
5
Raptors 40%
1 arb excluded
$7.7K
$1.4K
54.1¢ → 96.5¢
+78% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidRaptors at 97%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
25% of non-arb traders are on Raptors. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Raptorsavg 58.1¢ | $4.4K | $4.8K | +$441.71 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
MO mooseborzoii | Raptorsavg 46.1¢ | $1.2K | $2.2K | +$950.39 | 50% 1143-1136 (2279) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100 | Magicavg 45.5¢ | $802.54 | $657.63 | -$144.91 | 49% 559-583 (1142) |
| └ Raptors leg | Raptorsavg 53¢ | $295.37 | $456.99 | +$161.62 | |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 45.5¢ | $507.16 | $200.64 | -$306.53 | |
AN Anon455CTR<$100 | Magicavg 40.9¢ | $18.82 | $11.85 | -$6.96 | 56% 2651-2105 (4756) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Magicavg 53¢ | $22.26 | $7.56 | -$14.7 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
BU BullishBarbCTR<$100 | Magicavg 38¢ | $2.66 | $3.85 | +$1.19 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
Invested
$4,374.19
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$441.71
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$1,218.36
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$950.39
Record
50%
1143-1136 (2279)
Invested
$802.54
Value
$657.63
PnL
-$144.91
Record
49%
559-583 (1142)
Both legs:
Invested
$18.82
Value
$11.85
PnL
-$6.96
Record
56%
2651-2105 (4756)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$22.26
Value
$7.56
PnL
-$14.7
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$2.66
Value
$3.85
PnL
+$1.19
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.