Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Magic, while the market favors Raptors (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Magic vs. Raptors

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (60%) · Magic at 37¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 28

Magic37¢Raptors63¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Magic

Consensus Traders

Magic 60%

Total Value

$2.2K

Combined PnL

$76.35

Smart Money Entry

35¢ → 36.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Magic37%

Raptors64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Magic3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares5,228

Combined PnL+$73.96

Raptors2 traders

Total Value$292.79

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$2.39

Magic — 60%Raptors — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JO jole24CTR	Magicavg 35¢	$1.8K	$1.8K	+$75	45% 1013-1260 (2273)
RO rocky42019	Raptorsavg 64¢	$264.56	$267.65	+$3.08	42% 1674-2289 (3963)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Magicavg 36¢	$80.34	$79.3	-$1.04	53% 2815-2479 (5294)
PE peepeepooppoop<$100	Raptorsavg 64.7¢	$25.84	$25.14	-$0.7	52% 2017-1845 (3862)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Magicavg 37¢	$1.85	$1.85	+$0	50% 6761-6761 (13522)

jole24CTR

Magic

Invested

$1,750

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$75

Record

45%

1013-1260 (2273)

rocky42019

Raptors

Invested

$264.56

Value

$267.65

PnL

+$3.08

Record

42%

1674-2289 (3963)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$80.34

Value

$79.3

PnL

-$1.04

Record

53%

2815-2479 (5294)

peepeepooppoop<$100

Raptors

Invested

$25.84

Value

$25.14

PnL

-$0.7

Record

52%

2017-1845 (3862)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Magic

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.85

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

6761-6761 (13522)

Research grade

AvoidMagic at 37%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Magic

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Raptors 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Magic wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance38.7%

36.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$158.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

258.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.