Magic vs. Kings: O/U 222.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 53¢ · $754 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 50%
1 arb excluded
$754.29
$15.72
50.9¢ → 52.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Overavg 51.9¢ | $406.01 | $410.72 | +$4.71 | 54% 514-436 (950) |
 nigiri99ARB<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $249.89 | $183.43 | -$3.02 | 52% 125-115 (240) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 53¢ | $126.67 | $125.48 | -$2.41 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 48¢ | $58.56 | $57.95 | -$0.61 | |
HI hi774c | Overavg 48¢ | $132.11 | $143.12 | +$11.01 | 8% 37-420 (457) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $12.32 | $12.32 | +$0 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.7 | +$0 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
Invested
$406.01
Value
$410.72
PnL
+$4.71
Record
54%
514-436 (950)
nigiri99ARB<$100Invested
$249.89
Value
$183.43
PnL
-$3.02
Record
52%
125-115 (240)
Both legs:
Invested
$132.11
Value
$143.12
PnL
+$11.01
Record
8%
37-420 (457)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$12.32
Value
$12.32
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.