Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Magic vs. Kings: O/U 221.5

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 47¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 11

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 78%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

$17.2

Smart Money Entry

47.7¢ → 46.5¢

-3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares2,740

Combined PnL+$27.4

Under7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,333

Combined PnL-$10.2

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Overavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$27.16	54% 514-436 (950)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 48¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$13.14	24% 204-633 (837)
VeryLucky888CTR	Underavg 47¢	$117.5	$117.5	+$0	48% 208-228 (436)
38 38791873984189CTR	Underavg 46.4¢	$100.69	$101.99	+$1.3	48% 721-776 (1497)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$75.37	$77.01	+$1.64	57% 3070-2308 (5378)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 53¢	$24.13	$24.37	+$0.24	52% 247-230 (477)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$18.8	$18.8	-$0	55% 94-78 (172)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$11.75	$11.75	+$0	48% 406-439 (845)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$4.7	$4.7	-$0	22% 134-483 (617)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Over

Invested

$1,412.1

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$27.16

Record

54%

514-436 (950)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$1,261.16

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$13.14

Record

24%

204-633 (837)

VeryLucky888CTR

Under

Invested

$117.5

Value

$117.5

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

208-228 (436)

38791873984189CTR

Under

Invested

$100.69

Value

$101.99

PnL

+$1.3

Record

48%

721-776 (1497)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$75.37

Value

$77.01

PnL

+$1.64

Record

57%

3070-2308 (5378)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$24.13

Value

$24.37

PnL

+$0.24

Record

52%

247-230 (477)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.8

Value

$18.8

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

94-78 (172)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.75

Value

$11.75

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

406-439 (845)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.7

PnL

-$0

Record

22%

134-483 (617)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.