Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Magic (53%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Magic (-5.5)
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (80%) · Kings at 48¢ · $668 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
5
Kings 80%
$668.2
$2.64
47¢ → 47.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 48%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 53%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Kingsavg 47¢ | $245.36 | $247.97 | +$2.61 | 48% 218-232 (450) |
MO monkeymashingkeyboard | Magicavg 52¢ | $229.58 | $229.58 | -$0 | 54% 514-436 (950) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kingsavg 47¢ | $183.58 | $183.58 | -$0 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Kingsavg 47¢ | $4.7 | $4.7 | -$0 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Kingsavg 47¢ | $2.35 | $2.38 | +$0.02 | 23% 147-489 (636) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$245.36
Value
$247.97
PnL
+$2.61
Record
48%
218-232 (450)
Invested
$229.58
Value
$229.58
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
514-436 (950)
Invested
$183.58
Value
$183.58
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$4.7
Value
$4.7
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$2.38
PnL
+$0.02
Record
23%
147-489 (636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.