Spread: Magic (-4.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Magic (67%) · Magic at 56¢ · $443 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Magic
6
Magic 67%
$442.56
-$3.35
54.9¢ → 55.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidMagic at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 92%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Magic. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189 | Magicavg 54.3¢ | $202.27 | $157.34 | +$5.12 | 48% 937-1010 (1947) |
LI LimousinCTR | Kingsavg 46¢ | $132.04 | $126.3 | -$5.74 | 26% 231-671 (902) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | Kingsavg 45¢ | $93.5 | $91.52 | -$1.98 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Magicavg 57¢ | $49.4 | $48.69 | -$0.7 | 47% 149-168 (317) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Magicavg 55¢ | $13.75 | $13.75 | -$0 | 49% 438-463 (901) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Magicavg 57¢ | $5 | $4.95 | -$0.05 | 25% 176-515 (691) |
Invested
$202.27
Value
$157.34
PnL
+$5.12
Record
48%
937-1010 (1947)
Invested
$132.04
Value
$126.3
PnL
-$5.74
Record
26%
231-671 (902)
Invested
$93.5
Value
$91.52
PnL
-$1.98
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$49.4
Value
$48.69
PnL
-$0.7
Record
47%
149-168 (317)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$13.75
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
438-463 (901)
Invested
$5
Value
$4.95
PnL
-$0.05
Record
25%
176-515 (691)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.