Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Kings, while the market favors Magic (68%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Magic vs. Kings
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Kings (33%) · Kings at 33¢ · $958 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Kings
6
Kings 33%
1 arb excluded
$957.62
$8.29
32¢ → 32.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidKings at 33%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Magic 68%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-42 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Kings. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OD OddstormARB<$100 | Magicavg 67.8¢ | $232.38 | $450.19 | +$2.09 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
| └ Magic leg | Magicavg 67.8¢ | $358.76 | $354.43 | -$2.26 | |
| └ Kings leg | Kingsavg 31¢ | $89.96 | $95.76 | +$4.35 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Magicavg 67¢ | $181.91 | $183.27 | +$1.36 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Kingsavg 32¢ | $151.79 | $156.54 | +$4.74 | 46% 124-145 (269) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Kingsavg 32¢ | $100.1 | $103.23 | +$1.56 | 57% 3010-2261 (5271) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Magicavg 67¢ | $26.8 | $26.8 | +$0.2 | 57% 70-52 (122) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Magicavg 67¢ | $25.7 | $18.87 | +$0.42 | 47% 329-371 (700) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Magicavg 67¢ | $18.73 | $18.73 | +$0 | 51% 197-186 (383) |
Invested
$232.38
Value
$450.19
PnL
+$2.09
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$181.91
Value
$183.27
PnL
+$1.36
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$151.79
Value
$156.54
PnL
+$4.74
Record
46%
124-145 (269)
Invested
$100.1
Value
$103.23
PnL
+$1.56
Record
57%
3010-2261 (5271)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$26.8
Value
$26.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
57%
70-52 (122)
Invested
$25.7
Value
$18.87
PnL
+$0.42
Record
47%
329-371 (700)
Invested
$18.73
Value
$18.73
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
197-186 (383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.