Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (53%). 3 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Magic vs. Warriors: O/U 220.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 48¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 8

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.5K

Combined PnL

-$3.49

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 47.5¢

-10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$3.4K

Total Shares6,139

Combined PnL+$153.33

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,400

Combined PnL-$156.82

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 52.7¢	$2.9K	$3.1K	+$157.51	46% 8770-10464 (19234)
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 47.5¢	$3.1K	$2.9K	-$153.01	54% 18557-15589 (34146)
NM NM-PARB<$100	Overavg 55¢	$467.63	$469.01	+$1.38	64% 10183-5729 (15912)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$270.7	$273.16	+$2.46
└ Under leg	Underavg 44.7¢	$196.93	$195.85	-$1.08
VeryLucky888ARB<$100	Underavg 46.5¢	$376.26	$362.16	-$8.87	58% 47904-34520 (82424)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46.5¢	$233.58	$223.41	-$10.12
└ Over leg	Overavg 55¢	$137.5	$138.75	+$1.25
HI hi774c	Underavg 47¢	$337.31	$330.13	-$3.59	46% 5316-6151 (11467)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Overavg 54.2¢	$256.36	$254.66	-$2.56	53% 2699-2381 (5080)
0X 0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100	Overavg 55.2¢	$72.16	$70.54	-$1.62	49% 386-403 (789)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 46¢	$6.9	$6.67	-$0.22	50% 26504-26107 (52611)

nigiri99CTR

Over

Invested

$2,924.4

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$157.51

Record

46%

8770-10464 (19234)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,076.23

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$153.01

Record

54%

18557-15589 (34146)

NM-PARB<$100

Over

Invested

$467.63

Value

$469.01

PnL

+$1.38

Record

64%

10183-5729 (15912)

Both legs:

Over$270.755¢+$2.46

Under$196.9344.7¢-$1.08

VeryLucky888ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$376.26

Value

$362.16

PnL

-$8.87

Record

58%

47904-34520 (82424)

Both legs:

Under$233.5846.5¢-$10.12

Over$137.555¢+$1.25

hi774c

Under

Invested

$337.31

Value

$330.13

PnL

-$3.59

Record

46%

5316-6151 (11467)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Over

Invested

$256.36

Value

$254.66

PnL

-$2.56

Record

53%

2699-2381 (5080)

0x3d5a9e66f15e6719927972135501c61efc53a0beCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$72.16

Value

$70.54

PnL

-$1.62

Record

49%

386-403 (789)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$6.9

Value

$6.67

PnL

-$0.22

Record

50%

26504-26107 (52611)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 48%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 53%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.