Thunder vs. Kings

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (33%) · Thunder at 81¢ · $562 held · ends Nov 16

Thunder81¢Kings19¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 33%

Total Value

$562.27

Combined PnL

$4.77

Smart Money Entry

78.3¢ → 80.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder81%

Kings20%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$402.54

Total Shares511

Combined PnL-$2.5

Kings6 traders

Total Value$159.73

Total Shares735

Combined PnL+$7.26

Thunder — 33%Kings — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKings 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrKings 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 78.3¢	$389.44	$388.14	-$1.3	56% 3811-2982 (6793)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Kingsavg 18¢	$47.6	$50.9	+$3.3	35% 129-237 (366)
TY Tys0n8686CTR<$100	Kingsavg 17¢	$37.4	$44	+$6.6	68% 17-8 (25)
funnydayCTR<$100	Kingsavg 22¢	$44	$40	-$4	22% 7-25 (32)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Kingsavg 20¢	$15.94	$17.53	+$1.59	47% 1103-1245 (2348)
PA Pan9X<$100	Thunderavg 81¢	$32.34	$7.7	-$0.94	50% 1931-1953 (3884)
HY hydra1248<$100	Thunderavg 81¢	$6.95	$6.69	-$0.26	76% 212-68 (280)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Kingsavg 20¢	$5.5	$5.63	+$0.14	57% 3612-2700 (6312)
GA GaditimaCTR<$100	Kingsavg 24.4¢	$2.03	$1.67	-$0.37	49% 341-352 (693)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$389.44

Value

$388.14

PnL

-$1.3

Record

56%

3811-2982 (6793)

OddstormCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$47.6

Value

$50.9

PnL

+$3.3

Record

35%

129-237 (366)

Tys0n8686CTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$37.4

Value

$44

PnL

+$6.6

Record

68%

17-8 (25)

funnydayCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$44

Value

$40

PnL

-$4

Record

22%

7-25 (32)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$15.94

Value

$17.53

PnL

+$1.59

Record

47%

1103-1245 (2348)

Pan9X<$100

Thunder

Invested

$32.34

Value

$7.7

PnL

-$0.94

Record

50%

1931-1953 (3884)

hydra1248<$100

Thunder

Invested

$6.95

Value

$6.69

PnL

-$0.26

Record

76%

212-68 (280)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.63

PnL

+$0.14

Record

57%

3612-2700 (6312)

GaditimaCTR<$100

Kings

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.67

PnL

-$0.37

Record

49%

341-352 (693)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpKings 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrKings 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Kings 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.