Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (75%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 214.5
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 26¢ · $523 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 100%
$522.86
$236.71
16.4¢ → 25.5¢
+56% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 75%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 89%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BU Burkilota1CTR | Underavg 13¢ | $233.74 | $384.41 | +$233.74 | 65% 169-92 (261) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $83.07 | $83.07 | -$0 | 31% 390-873 (1263) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 25¢ | $33.02 | $34.34 | +$1.32 | 48% 1381-1515 (2896) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $13 | $13 | -$0 | 30% 380-877 (1257) |
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100 | Underavg 26¢ | $6.34 | $6.34 | -$0 | 31% 385-855 (1240) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 20.7¢ | $6.39 | $1.7 | +$1.65 | 55% 626-515 (1141) |
Invested
$233.74
Value
$384.41
PnL
+$233.74
Record
65%
169-92 (261)
Invested
$83.07
Value
$83.07
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
390-873 (1263)
Invested
$33.02
Value
$34.34
PnL
+$1.32
Record
48%
1381-1515 (2896)
Invested
$13
Value
$13
PnL
-$0
Record
30%
380-877 (1257)
Invested
$6.34
Value
$6.34
PnL
-$0
Record
31%
385-855 (1240)
Invested
$6.39
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$1.65
Record
55%
626-515 (1141)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.