Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (96%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 198.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 4.2¢ · $32 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$32.4
-$10.24
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 96%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 3.4¢ | $26.95 | $15.65 | -$11.3 | 48% 1171-1252 (2423) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $5.99 | $12.72 | +$6.74 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $5 | $2 | -$3 | 53% 5602-5022 (10624) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $3.3 | $1.32 | -$1.98 | 17% 43-211 (254) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $1.4 | $0.7 | -$0.7 | 49% 612-639 (1251) |
Invested
$26.95
Value
$15.65
PnL
-$11.3
Record
48%
1171-1252 (2423)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.99
Value
$12.72
PnL
+$6.74
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$5
Value
$2
PnL
-$3
Record
53%
5602-5022 (10624)
Invested
$3.3
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$1.98
Record
17%
43-211 (254)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.7
PnL
-$0.7
Record
49%
612-639 (1251)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.