Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (98%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 196.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 2.5¢ · $26 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 100%
$26.45
-$8.3
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Underavg 3¢ | $16.67 | $13.61 | -$3.06 | 48% 1171-1252 (2423) |
FO forecastication4CTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $10.88 | $6.66 | -$4.22 | 17% 43-211 (254) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.3¢ | $5.16 | $3.8 | -$1.36 | 49% 612-639 (1251) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Underavg 2¢ | $1.83 | $2.24 | +$0.41 | 12% 18-130 (148) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Underavg 4¢ | $0.21 | $0.13 | -$0.08 | 54% 493-423 (916) |
Invested
$16.67
Value
$13.61
PnL
-$3.06
Record
48%
1171-1252 (2423)
Invested
$10.88
Value
$6.66
PnL
-$4.22
Record
17%
43-211 (254)
Invested
$5.16
Value
$3.8
PnL
-$1.36
Record
49%
612-639 (1251)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$1.83
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.41
Record
12%
18-130 (148)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
493-423 (916)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.