Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (60%) · Trail Blazers at 54¢ · $883 held · ends Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
5
Trail Blazers 60%
$882.88
-$0.41
53.6¢ → 53.5¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO forecastication4 | Trail Blazersavg 53.3¢ | $470.9 | $472.94 | +$2.04 | 18% 48-217 (265) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Thunderavg 45¢ | $188.96 | $195.26 | +$6.3 | 57% 3221-2429 (5650) |
38 38791873984189 | Trail Blazersavg 54.4¢ | $145.99 | $134.18 | -$11.8 | 48% 1286-1384 (2670) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 54.3¢ | $54.26 | $50 | -$4.26 | 48% 654-705 (1359) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 38¢ | $23.18 | $30.5 | +$7.32 | 38% 136-221 (357) |
Invested
$470.9
Value
$472.94
PnL
+$2.04
Record
18%
48-217 (265)
Invested
$188.96
Value
$195.26
PnL
+$6.3
Record
57%
3221-2429 (5650)
Invested
$145.99
Value
$134.18
PnL
-$11.8
Record
48%
1286-1384 (2670)
Invested
$54.26
Value
$50
PnL
-$4.26
Record
48%
654-705 (1359)
Invested
$23.18
Value
$30.5
PnL
+$7.32
Record
38%
136-221 (357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.