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NoYes
4d9a879611D994FD9B56CTR<$100YesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Jared McCain: Points O/U 14.5
Resolved No. 80% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 80%
Total Value
$32
Combined PnL
-$56.55
Smart Money Signal
Yes
4 of 5 top traders (80%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$27
Total Shares27
Combined PnL+$13.5
Yes4 traders
Total Value$5
Total Shares151
Combined PnL-$70.05
No — 20%Yes — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $13.5 | $27 | +$13.5 | 42% 145-199 (344) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.4¢ | $80.44 | $5 | -$0.44 | 48% 1986-2186 (4172) |
4d9a879611D994FD9B56CTR<$100 | Yesavg 49.9¢ | $18.45 | — | -$18.45 | — 6-12 (18) |
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100 | Yesavg 53¢ | $21.2 | — | -$21.2 | 23% 21-71 (92) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50.7¢ | $40.6 | — | -$29.96 | 48% 1017-1087 (2104) |
FO
Forecastication2<$100Invested
$13.5
Value
$27
PnL
+$13.5
Record
42%
145-199 (344)
38
38791873984189CTR<$100Invested
$80.44
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.44
Record
48%
1986-2186 (4172)
4d9a879611D994FD9B56CTR<$100Invested
$18.45
Value
—
PnL
-$18.45
Record
—
6-12 (18)
0X
0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283CTR<$100Invested
$21.2
Value
—
PnL
-$21.2
Record
23%
21-71 (92)
PA
Pan9XCTR<$100Invested
$40.6
Value
—
PnL
-$29.96
Record
48%
1017-1087 (2104)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0x76d917d3...fd3fce
Slug
nba-okc-por-2026-11-11-points-jared-mccain-14pt5