Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 226.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$2.2K
$5.62
51.8¢ → 51.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KA KasonWong | Underavg 52¢ | $1.0K | $1.0K | +$0 | 12% 3-22 (25) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $960.98 | $960.92 | -$0.06 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $94.83 | $98.62 | +$3.79 | 24% 205-642 (847) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $78.03 | $79.56 | +$1.53 | 35% 171-317 (488) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Underavg 48¢ | $4.26 | $4.62 | +$0.36 | 57% 103-79 (182) |
Invested
$1,040
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$0
Record
12%
3-22 (25)
Invested
$960.98
Value
$960.92
PnL
-$0.06
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$94.83
Value
$98.62
PnL
+$3.79
Record
24%
205-642 (847)
Invested
$78.03
Value
$79.56
PnL
+$1.53
Record
35%
171-317 (488)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$4.26
Value
$4.62
PnL
+$0.36
Record
57%
103-79 (182)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.