Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 225.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 54¢ · $628 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$628.46
$24.29
48.9¢ → 53.5¢
+9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 54%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Underavg 48.9¢ | $191.89 | $209.98 | +$18.09 | 25% 209-625 (834) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49.6¢ | $204.83 | $196.14 | -$8.69 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 50¢ | $125 | $133.75 | +$8.75 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 47¢ | $68.34 | $74.16 | +$5.82 | 24% 208-644 (852) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 47.2¢ | $10.86 | $11.05 | +$0.19 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Underavg 49¢ | $3.26 | $3.39 | +$0.13 | 24% 204-649 (853) |
Invested
$191.89
Value
$209.98
PnL
+$18.09
Record
25%
209-625 (834)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$204.83
Value
$196.14
PnL
-$8.69
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$125
Value
$133.75
PnL
+$8.75
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$68.34
Value
$74.16
PnL
+$5.82
Record
24%
208-644 (852)
Invested
$10.86
Value
$11.05
PnL
+$0.19
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$3.26
Value
$3.39
PnL
+$0.13
Record
24%
204-649 (853)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.