Thunder vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 224.5
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (29%) · Under at 51¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 29%
$1.1K
$38.03
46.4¢ → 50.5¢
+9% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
29% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 46¢ | $537.08 | $589.05 | +$51.97 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 53.7¢ | $225.64 | $212.35 | -$13.29 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
VE Venusian | Underavg 48¢ | $134.4 | $141.4 | +$7 | 24% 208-644 (852) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 52¢ | $130 | $79.2 | -$5.8 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $18.38 | $17.84 | -$0.54 | 51% 265-255 (520) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $13.75 | $12.75 | -$1 | 48% 410-447 (857) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 51.8¢ | $12.72 | $12.4 | -$0.32 | 56% 105-81 (186) |
Invested
$537.08
Value
$589.05
PnL
+$51.97
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$225.64
Value
$212.35
PnL
-$13.29
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Invested
$134.4
Value
$141.4
PnL
+$7
Record
24%
208-644 (852)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$130
Value
$79.2
PnL
-$5.8
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$18.38
Value
$17.84
PnL
-$0.54
Record
51%
265-255 (520)
Invested
$13.75
Value
$12.75
PnL
-$1
Record
48%
410-447 (857)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$12.72
Value
$12.4
PnL
-$0.32
Record
56%
105-81 (186)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.