Spread: Thunder (-4.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (71%) · Trail Blazers at 60¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
7
Trail Blazers 71%
$4.8K
$79.33
58¢ → 59.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Trail Blazersavg 58¢ | $4.3K | $4.3K | +$72.87 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
 VeryLucky888 | Trail Blazersavg 58¢ | $290 | $223.61 | +$5 | 49% 235-240 (475) |
38 38791873984189 | Trail Blazersavg 58¢ | $139.78 | $142.19 | +$2.41 | 48% 879-959 (1838) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 42¢ | $58.8 | $57.4 | -$1.4 | 25% 216-657 (873) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Thunderavg 41¢ | $40.43 | $40.43 | -$0 | 47% 148-167 (315) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 58¢ | $14.5 | $14.75 | +$0.25 | 48% 424-451 (875) |
 0xheavy888<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 58¢ | $11.6 | $11.8 | +$0.2 | 56% 108-86 (194) |
Invested
$4,265.53
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$72.87
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
VeryLucky888Invested
$290
Value
$223.61
PnL
+$5
Record
49%
235-240 (475)
Invested
$139.78
Value
$142.19
PnL
+$2.41
Record
48%
879-959 (1838)
Invested
$58.8
Value
$57.4
PnL
-$1.4
Record
25%
216-657 (873)
Invested
$40.43
Value
$40.43
PnL
-$0
Record
47%
148-167 (315)
Invested
$14.5
Value
$14.75
PnL
+$0.25
Record
48%
424-451 (875)
0xheavy888<$100Invested
$11.6
Value
$11.8
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
108-86 (194)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.