Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (50%) · Trail Blazers at 53¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Trail Blazers
4
Trail Blazers 50%
1 arb excluded
$2.3K
$49.91
50.7¢ → 52.5¢
+3% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidTrail Blazers at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Trail Blazersavg 50.8¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$32.62 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Trail Blazersavg 50.8¢ | $345.32 | $280.17 | +$2.25 | 47% 781-864 (1645) |
| └ Trail Blazers leg | Trail Blazersavg 50.8¢ | $166 | $169.77 | +$4.55 | |
| └ Thunder leg | Thunderavg 49¢ | $112.7 | $110.4 | -$2.3 | |
 VeryLucky888 | Trail Blazersavg 50.5¢ | $524.72 | $254.42 | +$10.29 | 48% 220-236 (456) |
NM NM-PCTR | Thunderavg 47¢ | $164.5 | $168 | +$3.5 | 60% 3440-2335 (5775) |
GC GC-PCTR | Thunderavg 47¢ | $164.5 | $168 | +$3.5 | 16% 65-346 (411) |
Invested
$1,368.49
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$32.62
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$345.32
Value
$280.17
PnL
+$2.25
Record
47%
781-864 (1645)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$524.72
Value
$254.42
PnL
+$10.29
Record
48%
220-236 (456)
Invested
$164.5
Value
$168
PnL
+$3.5
Record
60%
3440-2335 (5775)
Invested
$164.5
Value
$168
PnL
+$3.5
Record
16%
65-346 (411)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.