Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 5.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 55¢ · $271 held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 100%
$271.45
$1.78
54.6¢ → 54.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RollAwayTheDew | Noavg 55¢ | $194.47 | $194.47 | +$0 | 3% 7-227 (234) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $44.26 | $45.08 | +$0.82 | 51% 330-319 (649) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $13.78 | $14.3 | +$0.52 | 48% 969-1052 (2021) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Noavg 53¢ | $11.66 | $12.1 | +$0.44 | 49% 450-474 (924) |
AU auros2<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $5.5 | $5.5 | +$0 | 85% 62-11 (73) |
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$194.47
Value
$194.47
PnL
+$0
Record
3%
7-227 (234)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$44.26
Value
$45.08
PnL
+$0.82
Record
51%
330-319 (649)
Invested
$13.78
Value
$14.3
PnL
+$0.52
Record
48%
969-1052 (2021)
Invested
$11.66
Value
$12.1
PnL
+$0.44
Record
49%
450-474 (924)
Invested
$5.5
Value
$5.5
PnL
+$0
Record
85%
62-11 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.