Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Trail Blazers, while the market favors Thunder (55%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Thunder vs. Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Trail Blazers (63%) · Trail Blazers at 46¢ · $7K held · ends Nov 11

Thunder55¢Trail Blazers45¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Trail Blazers

Consensus Traders

Trail Blazers 63%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.8K

Combined PnL

-$40.15

Smart Money Entry

46¢ → 45.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder55%

Trail Blazers46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Trail Blazers5 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares10,401

Combined PnL-$50.2

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,408

Combined PnL+$10.06

Trail Blazers — 63%Thunder — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpThunder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
AP AppleTiiimeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$4.6K	$4.5K	-$49.12	53% 82-74 (156)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 54¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$15.12	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
OD OddstormARB<$100	Trail Blazersavg 46.9¢	$208.85	$204.32	-$4.53	7% 7-88 (95)
└ Trail Blazers leg	Trail Blazersavg 46.9¢	$124.09	$121.61	-$2.48
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 52.8¢	$80.85	$82.71	-$2.05
PU purplegatto	Thunderavg 54¢	$182.6	$182.67	-$3.93	69% 2536-1149 (3685)
TA takeormakeCTR	Trail Blazersavg 46¢	$124.66	$123.31	-$1.35	58% 3041-2166 (5207)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Thunderavg 53.9¢	$43.07	$43.14	-$1.14	4% 21-541 (562)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$40.78	$41.23	+$0.45	47% 171-192 (363)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 47¢	$11.77	$11.52	-$0.25	27% 133-354 (487)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Trail Blazersavg 45¢	$6.35	$6.42	+$0.07	57% 70-52 (122)

AppleTiiimeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$4,599.1

Value

$4.5K

PnL

-$49.12

Record

53%

82-74 (156)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$1,632.66

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$15.12

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

OddstormARB<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$208.85

Value

$204.32

PnL

-$4.53

Record

7-88 (95)

Both legs:

Trail Blazers$124.0946.9¢-$2.48

Thunder$80.8552.8¢-$2.05

purplegatto

Thunder

Invested

$182.6

Value

$182.67

PnL

-$3.93

Record

69%

2536-1149 (3685)

takeormakeCTR

Trail Blazers

Invested

$124.66

Value

$123.31

PnL

-$1.35

Record

58%

3041-2166 (5207)

darkumbreon88<$100

Thunder

Invested

$43.07

Value

$43.14

PnL

-$1.14

Record

21-541 (562)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$40.78

Value

$41.23

PnL

+$0.45

Record

47%

171-192 (363)

sentrioCTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$11.77

Value

$11.52

PnL

-$0.25

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Trail Blazers

Invested

$6.35

Value

$6.42

PnL

+$0.07

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

Research grade

AvoidTrail Blazers at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Trail Blazers

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Trail Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

sharpThunder 50% · 2

Diverging

ctrTrail Blazers 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Trail Blazers 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Trail Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance47.7%

45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$109.45

Max Loss

-$100.00

209.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.