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NoYesYesYesYes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was No — but Yes won instead.
Keaton Wagler: Points O/U 9.5
Resolved Yes. 20% of the top Polymarket traders held No. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
No 25%
Total Value
$4.5K
Combined PnL
$38.76
Smart Money Signal
No
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes100%
No0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
No1 trader
Total Value$0
Total Shares4,400
Combined PnL$-2.2K
Yes4 traders
Total Value$4.5K
Total Shares4,476
Combined PnL+$2.3K
No — 20%Yes — 80%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeA3DeD580E454AAdaffd7c2df80616AA8e39524D-1779286950371CTR | Noavg 51¢ | $2.2K | — | $-2.2K | 65% 22-12 (34) |
MD mde4life1986 | Yesavg 49¢ | $2.1K | $4.4K | +$2.2K | 3% 2-67 (69) |
0X 0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $39.69 | $81 | +$41.31 | 29% 32-80 (112) |
AU auros2<$100 | Yesavg 49¢ | $4.9 | $10 | +$5.1 | 64% 78-43 (121) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Yesavg 50¢ | $200 | — | +$0 | 72% 120-47 (167) |
0X
0xeA3DeD580E454AAdaffd7c2df80616AA8e39524D-1779286950371CTRInvested
$2,244
Value
—
PnL
$-2.2K
Record
65%
22-12 (34)
MD
mde4life1986Invested
$2,148.65
Value
$4.4K
PnL
+$2.2K
Record
3%
2-67 (69)
0X
0x68234mjhgfvj8612543ytjsa6187235v81283<$100Invested
$39.69
Value
$81
PnL
+$41.31
Record
29%
32-80 (112)
AU
auros2<$100Invested
$4.9
Value
$10
PnL
+$5.1
Record
64%
78-43 (121)
OV
overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesInvested
$200
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
72%
120-47 (167)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xbfe65093...90595c
Slug
nba-okc-lac-2026-11-13-points-keaton-wagler-9pt5