Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 220.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 52¢ · $24K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Under
8
Under 75%
$24.5K
-$102.25
52¢ → 51.5¢
-1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 52%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $12.3K | $12.2K | -$129.07 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
JU justwinsCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $7.4K | $7.5K | +$77.09 | 50% 166-163 (329) |
 ComingBackCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $4.6K | $4.6K | -$47.59 | 61% 3943-2470 (6413) |
NA NatoAlfista | Underavg 52¢ | $193.83 | $191.97 | -$1.86 | 50% 3877-3837 (7714) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $34.73 | $34.73 | +$0 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 53.4¢ | $31 | $30.16 | -$0.84 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
SU SunlineTicker<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $6.24 | $6.37 | +$0.12 | 62% 4161-2553 (6714) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $2.65 | $2.55 | -$0.1 | 48% 2424-2645 (5069) |
Invested
$12,295.31
Value
$12.2K
PnL
-$129.07
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$7,400.61
Value
$7.5K
PnL
+$77.09
Record
50%
166-163 (329)
ComingBackCTRInvested
$4,570
Value
$4.6K
PnL
-$47.59
Record
61%
3943-2470 (6413)
Invested
$193.83
Value
$191.97
PnL
-$1.86
Record
50%
3877-3837 (7714)
Invested
$34.73
Value
$34.73
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
Invested
$31
Value
$30.16
PnL
-$0.84
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$6.24
Value
$6.37
PnL
+$0.12
Record
62%
4161-2553 (6714)
Invested
$2.65
Value
$2.55
PnL
-$0.1
Record
48%
2424-2645 (5069)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.