Thunder vs. Rockets: O/U 218.5

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 52¢ · $232 held · ends Nov 1

Over52¢Under48¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$231.6

Combined PnL

$4.65

Smart Money Entry

50¢ → 52¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over52%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$169.42

Total Shares329

Combined PnL+$5.01

Under3 traders

Total Value$62.18

Total Shares113

Combined PnL-$0.36

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ComingBack	Overavg 50¢	$157.87	$162.6	+$4.74	61% 3943-2470 (6413)
HE HerdoniaCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$36.45	$36.59	-$0.16	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$23.03	$22.79	-$0.24	53% 2185-1930 (4115)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 50¢	$12.19	$3.73	+$0.24	57% 13827-10598 (24425)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 51¢	$3.06	$3.09	+$0.03	53% 4726-4250 (8976)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$2.77	$2.8	+$0.03	55% 7128-5716 (12844)

ComingBack

Over

Invested

$157.87

Value

$162.6

PnL

+$4.74

Record

61%

3943-2470 (6413)

HerdoniaCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$36.45

Value

$36.59

PnL

-$0.16

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.03

Value

$22.79

PnL

-$0.24

Record

53%

2185-1930 (4115)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$12.19

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$0.24

Record

57%

13827-10598 (24425)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$3.06

Value

$3.09

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

4726-4250 (8976)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.77

Value

$2.8

PnL

+$0.03

Record

55%

7128-5716 (12844)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 52%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (6 on Over) disagree here.

whaleUnder 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.2%

52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$84.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

184.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.