Spread: Rockets (-4.5)

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (57%) · Thunder at 57¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 1

Rockets43¢Thunder57¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 57%

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$28.62

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 57.5¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets43%

Thunder57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares5,361

Combined PnL+$18.43

Rockets3 traders

Total Value$311.42

Total Shares677

Combined PnL+$10.19

Thunder — 57%Rockets — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941	Thunderavg 52¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$13.45	88% 252-33 (285)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 54¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$0	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
VeryLucky888CTR	Rocketsavg 44¢	$220	$230	+$10	58% 41902-30424 (72326)
GO goldmyname	Thunderavg 51¢	$211.09	$217.36	+$6.27	60% 138-93 (231)
AY ay118CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 46¢	$64.4	$64.4	+$0	51% 25-24 (49)
HE Herdonia<$100	Thunderavg 57¢	$31.27	$29.97	-$1.3	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 45.5¢	$16.83	$17.02	+$0.19	58% 28689-21179 (49868)

0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941

Thunder

Invested

$1,399.05

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$13.45

Record

88%

252-33 (285)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$1,191.24

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

VeryLucky888CTR

Rockets

Invested

$220

Value

$230

PnL

+$10

Record

58%

41902-30424 (72326)

goldmyname

Thunder

Invested

$211.09

Value

$217.36

PnL

+$6.27

Record

60%

138-93 (231)

ay118CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$64.4

Value

$64.4

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

25-24 (49)

Herdonia<$100

Thunder

Invested

$31.27

Value

$29.97

PnL

-$1.3

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$16.83

Value

$17.02

PnL

+$0.19

Record

58%

28689-21179 (49868)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.