Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Rockets, while the market favors Thunder (55%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Rockets (71%) · Rockets at 46¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 1
⚠️
Avoid
Rockets
7
Rockets 71%
$7.7K
-$167.79
48.2¢ → 45.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidRockets at 46%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Rocketsavg 48.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.0K | -$205.3 | 54% 17179-14402 (31581) |
MA MAGATheeStallion | Thunderavg 52¢ | $2.0K | $1.8K | -$153.5 | 57% 247-185 (432) |
AY ay118CTR | Rocketsavg 47¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$118.05 | 51% 25-24 (49) |
HI hi774cCTR | Rocketsavg 48¢ | $1.0K | $1.1K | +$86.52 | 52% 4731-4450 (9181) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Rocketsavg 48¢ | $480 | $465 | -$15 | 53% 5631-4970 (10601) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Rocketsavg 49.5¢ | $44.9 | $46.2 | +$1.3 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
HE Herdonia<$100 | Thunderavg 48¢ | $14.06 | $14.06 | +$0.15 | 54% 3357-2905 (6262) |
Invested
$3,177.7
Value
$3.0K
PnL
-$205.3
Record
54%
17179-14402 (31581)
Invested
$1,999.4
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$153.5
Record
57%
247-185 (432)
Invested
$1,109.67
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$118.05
Record
51%
25-24 (49)
Invested
$1,038.25
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$86.52
Record
52%
4731-4450 (9181)
Invested
$480
Value
$465
PnL
-$15
Record
53%
5631-4970 (10601)
Invested
$44.9
Value
$46.2
PnL
+$1.3
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$14.06
Value
$14.06
PnL
+$0.15
Record
54%
3357-2905 (6262)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.