Spread: Rockets (-2.5)

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (50%) · Thunder at 51¢ · $11K held · ends Nov 1

Rockets50¢Thunder50¢Ends Sun, Nov 1, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$10.6K

Combined PnL

$4.8

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 50.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Rockets50%

Thunder51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder2 traders

Total Value$10.5K

Total Shares20,583

Combined PnL+$5.77

Rockets2 traders

Total Value$50.36

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$0.97

Thunder — 50%Rockets — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MO monkeymashingkeyboard	Thunderavg 51¢	$10.2K	$10.2K	+$0	54% 604-520 (1124)
HE Herdonia	Thunderavg 50¢	$321.94	$327.72	+$5.77	54% 3357-2905 (6262)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Thunderavg 49.4¢	$51.89	$51.54	-$0.35	58% 28707-21186 (49893)
└ Thunder leg	Thunderavg 49.4¢	$28.16	$28.79	+$0.63
└ Rockets leg	Rocketsavg 51.6¢	$23.73	$22.75	-$0.98
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Rocketsavg 51.9¢	$32.87	$31.32	-$1.55	54% 17179-14402 (31581)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100	Rocketsavg 48¢	$18.46	$19.04	+$0.58	53% 5632-4972 (10604)

monkeymashingkeyboard

Thunder

Invested

$10,200

Value

$10.2K

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

604-520 (1124)

Herdonia

Thunder

Invested

$321.94

Value

$327.72

PnL

+$5.77

Record

54%

3357-2905 (6262)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Thunder

Invested

$51.89

Value

$51.54

PnL

-$0.35

Record

58%

28707-21186 (49893)

Both legs:

Thunder$28.1649.4¢+$0.63

Rockets$23.7351.6¢-$0.98

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$32.87

Value

$31.32

PnL

-$1.55

Record

54%

17179-14402 (31581)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR<$100

Rockets

Invested

$18.46

Value

$19.04

PnL

+$0.58

Record

53%

5632-4972 (10604)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 50% · 2

Aligned

sharpThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThunder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Thunder 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.