Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 232.5

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 57¢ · $14K held · ends Oct 29

Over43¢Under57¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$13.8K

Combined PnL

$415.46

Smart Money Entry

56.9¢ → 57.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over43%

Under57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$5.0K

Total Shares8,845

Combined PnL+$3.48

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares6,814

Combined PnL+$411.98

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Overavg 43¢	$5.4K	$5.4K	-$12.79	54% 16863-14141 (31004)
└ Over leg	Overavg 43¢	$3.0K	$2.9K	-$34.31
└ Under leg	Underavg 57¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$21.52
SU SunlineTicker	Underavg 57¢	$4.7K	$4.7K	+$40.98	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
TA takeormakeCTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.5K	$2.9K	+$406.98	54% 3823-3297 (7120)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR	Overavg 43¢	$430	$435	+$5	53% 5499-4842 (10341)
RollAwayTheDew	Underavg 55.8¢	$362.47	$324.97	-$37.5	52% 317-288 (605)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Over

Invested

$5,403.03

Value

$5.4K

PnL

-$12.79

Record

54%

16863-14141 (31004)

Both legs:

Over$2,950.2943¢-$34.31

Under$2,452.7457¢+$21.52

SunlineTicker

Under

Invested

$4,671.36

Value

$4.7K

PnL

+$40.98

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

takeormakeCTR

Over

Invested

$2,500.01

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$406.98

Record

54%

3823-3297 (7120)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR

Over

Invested

$430

Value

$435

PnL

+$5

Record

53%

5499-4842 (10341)

RollAwayTheDew

Under

Invested

$362.47

Value

$324.97

PnL

-$37.5

Record

52%

317-288 (605)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 57%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.