Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (54%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 230.5
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (71%) · Over at 47¢ · $7K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
7
Over 71%
$6.8K
-$43.61
49.3¢ → 46.5¢
-6% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 47%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Under 54%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 49.4¢ | $3.4K | $3.2K | -$195.46 | 54% 16793-14092 (30885) |
 nigiri99 | Underavg 49.8¢ | $2.6K | $2.8K | +$193.17 | — |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Overavg 50¢ | $500 | $460 | -$40 | 53% 5485-4833 (10318) |
 RollAwayTheDew | Underavg 53¢ | $118.75 | $118.75 | -$0 | 52% 307-281 (588) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 46¢ | $115 | $116.25 | +$1.25 | 58% 40677-29411 (70088) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 48.9¢ | $62.95 | $60.88 | -$2.07 | 58% 28040-20670 (48710) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $20 | $9.3 | -$0.5 | 56% 6870-5503 (12373) |
Invested
$3,374.86
Value
$3.2K
PnL
-$195.46
Record
54%
16793-14092 (30885)
nigiri99Invested
$2,612.57
Value
$2.8K
PnL
+$193.17
Record
—
Invested
$500
Value
$460
PnL
-$40
Record
53%
5485-4833 (10318)
RollAwayTheDewInvested
$118.75
Value
$118.75
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
307-281 (588)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$115
Value
$116.25
PnL
+$1.25
Record
58%
40677-29411 (70088)
Invested
$62.95
Value
$60.88
PnL
-$2.07
Record
58%
28040-20670 (48710)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$20
Value
$9.3
PnL
-$0.5
Record
56%
6870-5503 (12373)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.