Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 228.5

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 53¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Over53¢Under47¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 80%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

$30.97

Smart Money Entry

52¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over53%

Under48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,645

Combined PnL+$17.71

Under1 trader

Total Value$858.25

Total Shares1,788

Combined PnL+$13.25

Over — 80%Under — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Overavg 52¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$16.59	54% 3813-3274 (7087)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 47.3¢	$844.99	$858.25	+$13.25	54% 16846-14132 (30978)
VeryLucky888	Overavg 51¢	$129.27	$131.81	+$2.54	58% 40728-29460 (70188)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Overavg 53.4¢	$40.58	$39.76	-$1.11	58% 28094-20712 (48806)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 54¢	$10.8	$10.5	-$0.3	56% 6904-5522 (12426)

takeormake

Over

Invested

$1,724.98

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$16.59

Record

54%

3813-3274 (7087)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$844.99

Value

$858.25

PnL

+$13.25

Record

54%

16846-14132 (30978)

VeryLucky888

Over

Invested

$129.27

Value

$131.81

PnL

+$2.54

Record

58%

40728-29460 (70188)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Over

Invested

$40.58

Value

$39.76

PnL

-$1.11

Record

58%

28094-20712 (48806)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$10.8

Value

$10.5

PnL

-$0.3

Record

56%

6904-5522 (12426)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 53%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.