Thunder vs. Mavericks: O/U 226.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 56¢ · $16K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 40%
$16.0K
$105.96
56.7¢ → 55.5¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 56%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA takeormake | Overavg 57¢ | $8.2K | $8.0K | -$71.86 | 54% 3823-3297 (7120) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $4.9K | $5.1K | +$173.75 | 54% 16864-14141 (31005) |
FO forecastication4 | Overavg 55¢ | $1.5K | $1.5K | +$27.32 | 49% 1127-1156 (2283) |
WO woshikd99CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | -$27.28 | 50% 31-31 (62) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Underavg 43¢ | $268 | $119.26 | +$4.02 | 38% 848-1408 (2256) |
Invested
$8,191.99
Value
$8.0K
PnL
-$71.86
Record
54%
3823-3297 (7120)
Invested
$4,919.88
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$173.75
Record
54%
16864-14141 (31005)
Invested
$1,502.84
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$27.32
Record
49%
1127-1156 (2283)
Invested
$1,227.6
Value
$1.2K
PnL
-$27.28
Record
50%
31-31 (62)
Invested
$268
Value
$119.26
PnL
+$4.02
Record
38%
848-1408 (2256)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.