Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (86%) · Mavericks at 61¢ · $21K held · ends Oct 29

Thunder39¢Mavericks61¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 86%

Total Value

$20.5K

Combined PnL

-$88.11

Smart Money Entry

60¢ → 61¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder39%

Mavericks61%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder1 trader

Total Value$9.0K

Total Shares23,049

Combined PnL-$260.91

Mavericks6 traders

Total Value$11.6K

Total Shares18,900

Combined PnL+$172.8

Thunder — 14%Mavericks — 86%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 83% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormakeCTR	Thunderavg 40.1¢	$9.3K	$9.0K	-$260.91	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
SU SunlineTicker	Mavericksavg 60¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$68.67	62% 4023-2463 (6486)
0X 0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186	Mavericksavg 60¢	$3.7K	$3.8K	+$61.54	46% 410-475 (885)
TO tomb2456	Mavericksavg 60¢	$2.4K	$2.4K	+$40	50% 275-273 (548)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 60¢	$591.74	$591.74	-$4.93	58% 40917-29601 (70518)
BU BullishBarb	Mavericksavg 60¢	$572.75	$579.69	+$7.43	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mavericksavg 59¢	$2.95	$3.05	+$0.1	47% 2102-2381 (4483)

takeormakeCTR

Thunder

Invested

$9,250.08

Value

$9.0K

PnL

-$260.91

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

SunlineTicker

Mavericks

Invested

$4,120.2

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$68.67

Record

62%

4023-2463 (6486)

0xb4F978BE63cDF75554b0B46a4262a6dB597cc9A7-1779258330186

Mavericks

Invested

$3,691.81

Value

$3.8K

PnL

+$61.54

Record

46%

410-475 (885)

tomb2456

Mavericks

Invested

$2,400

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$40

Record

50%

275-273 (548)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$591.74

Value

$591.74

PnL

-$4.93

Record

58%

40917-29601 (70518)

BullishBarb

Mavericks

Invested

$572.75

Value

$579.69

PnL

+$7.43

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.95

Value

$3.05

PnL

+$0.1

Record

47%

2102-2381 (4483)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 69%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Mavericks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrMavericks 86% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Mavericks 83% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.