Spread: Thunder (-6.5)

3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (50%) · Mavericks at 51¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Thunder49¢Mavericks51¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 50%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$4.36

Smart Money Entry

52.3¢ → 51¢

-2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder49%

Mavericks51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,148

Combined PnL-$10.56

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$601.59

Total Shares1,206

Combined PnL+$6.2

Mavericks — 50%Thunder — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF	Mavericksavg 52.8¢	$718.4	$714	-$4.4	54% 371-322 (693)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Thunderavg 48.2¢	$438.78	$446.28	+$7.5	54% 16793-14092 (30885)
VeryLucky888	Mavericksavg 51.3¢	$401.69	$395.6	-$6.08	58% 40677-29411 (70088)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Thunderavg 48¢	$112.32	$111.15	-$1.17	50% 6768-6780 (13548)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Thunderavg 48.5¢	$44.16	$44.17	-$0.13	58% 28040-20670 (48710)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Mavericksavg 52¢	$2.6	$2.53	-$0.08	49% 1874-1975 (3849)

QWUERHAIUKSJNFSNCF

Mavericks

Invested

$718.4

Value

$714

PnL

-$4.4

Record

54%

371-322 (693)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Thunder

Invested

$438.78

Value

$446.28

PnL

+$7.5

Record

54%

16793-14092 (30885)

VeryLucky888

Mavericks

Invested

$401.69

Value

$395.6

PnL

-$6.08

Record

58%

40677-29411 (70088)

Forecastication2CTR

Thunder

Invested

$112.32

Value

$111.15

PnL

-$1.17

Record

50%

6768-6780 (13548)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Thunder

Invested

$44.16

Value

$44.17

PnL

-$0.13

Record

58%

28040-20670 (48710)

ameisgoat11<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.6

Value

$2.53

PnL

-$0.08

Record

49%

1874-1975 (3849)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 51%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.2%

51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$87.80

Max Loss

-$100.00

187.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.