Spread: Thunder (-4.5)

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (60%) · Thunder at 55¢ · $256 held · ends Oct 29

Thunder55¢Mavericks45¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 60%

Total Value

$256.22

Combined PnL

-$1.79

Smart Money Entry

55.1¢ → 54.5¢

-1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder55%

Mavericks46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder3 traders

Total Value$240.58

Total Shares440

Combined PnL-$1.91

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$15.64

Total Shares35

Combined PnL+$0.12

Thunder — 60%Mavericks — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888	Thunderavg 55¢	$275	$224.19	-$2.06	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Thunderavg 56¢	$13.44	$13.56	+$0.12	50% 6813-6827 (13640)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 45¢	$13.32	$13.47	+$0.15	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Thunderavg 56¢	$2.8	$2.82	+$0.02	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Mavericksavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.18	-$0.03	47% 2054-2350 (4404)

VeryLucky888

Thunder

Invested

$275

Value

$224.19

PnL

-$2.06

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

Forecastication2<$100

Thunder

Invested

$13.44

Value

$13.56

PnL

+$0.12

Record

50%

6813-6827 (13640)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$13.32

Value

$13.47

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.8

Value

$2.82

PnL

+$0.02

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 55%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance56.7%

54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$76.26

Max Loss

-$100.00

176.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.