Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Thunder (57%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (43%) · Mavericks at 43¢ · $2K held · ends Oct 29

Thunder57¢Mavericks43¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mavericks

Consensus Traders

Mavericks 43%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$47.85

Smart Money Entry

41.9¢ → 42.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder57%

Mavericks43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mavericks3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,893

Combined PnL+$18.21

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,943

Combined PnL+$29.63

Mavericks — 43%Thunder — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SU SunlineTickerCTR	Mavericksavg 41.9¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$18.29	62% 4022-2462 (6484)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989	Thunderavg 58¢	$562.56	$586.81	+$24.25	53% 5500-4845 (10345)
HO HomeRunHazard	Thunderavg 59¢	$297.95	$305.53	+$7.57	54% 16868-14145 (31013)
VeryLucky888	Thunderavg 58¢	$290	$266.04	-$2.31	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 40¢	$7.2	$7.11	-$0.09	58% 28123-20732 (48855)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Thunderavg 58¢	$2.9	$3.03	+$0.13	47% 2054-2350 (4404)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Mavericksavg 42¢	$1.05	$1.06	+$0.01	53% 3056-2718 (5774)

SunlineTickerCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$1,202.31

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$18.29

Record

62%

4022-2462 (6484)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989

Thunder

Invested

$562.56

Value

$586.81

PnL

+$24.25

Record

53%

5500-4845 (10345)

HomeRunHazard

Thunder

Invested

$297.95

Value

$305.53

PnL

+$7.57

Record

54%

16868-14145 (31013)

VeryLucky888

Thunder

Invested

$290

Value

$266.04

PnL

-$2.31

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$7.2

Value

$7.11

PnL

-$0.09

Record

58%

28123-20732 (48855)

ameisgoat11<$100

Thunder

Invested

$2.9

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.13

Record

47%

2054-2350 (4404)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Mavericks

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

Research grade

AvoidMavericks at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Mavericks

3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mavericks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.