Spread: Thunder (-2.5)
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (50%) · Thunder at 60¢ · $8K held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Thunder
6
Thunder 50%
$7.9K
-$72.42
60.1¢ → 59.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidThunder at 60%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Thunderavg 59.8¢ | $4.5K | $4.5K | -$26.38 | 54% 16884-14152 (31036) |
TA takeormake | Thunderavg 61¢ | $2.1K | $2.0K | -$50.76 | 54% 3824-3298 (7122) |
BU BullishBarbCTR | Mavericksavg 40.5¢ | $940.32 | $940.39 | +$0.07 | 43% 2996-4016 (7012) |
DA darkumbreon88 | Thunderavg 59¢ | $453.27 | $457 | +$3.73 | 65% 1674-905 (2579) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 38.7¢ | $17.81 | $18.63 | +$0.82 | 53% 3243-2909 (6152) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 38¢ | $1.9 | $2 | +$0.1 | 50% 6821-6834 (13655) |
Invested
$4,513.77
Value
$4.5K
PnL
-$26.38
Record
54%
16884-14152 (31036)
Invested
$2,064.23
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$50.76
Record
54%
3824-3298 (7122)
Invested
$940.32
Value
$940.39
PnL
+$0.07
Record
43%
2996-4016 (7012)
Invested
$453.27
Value
$457
PnL
+$3.73
Record
65%
1674-905 (2579)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$17.81
Value
$18.63
PnL
+$0.82
Record
53%
3243-2909 (6152)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$2
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
6821-6834 (13655)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.