Spread: Thunder (-1.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Thunder (67%) · Thunder at 61¢ · $3K held · ends Oct 29

Thunder61¢Mavericks39¢Ends Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Thunder

Consensus Traders

Thunder 67%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$40.21

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 61¢

-5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Thunder61%

Mavericks39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Thunder4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares3,045

Combined PnL-$92.71

Mavericks2 traders

Total Value$939.16

Total Shares2,375

Combined PnL+$52.51

Thunder — 67%Mavericks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (5 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Thunderavg 65¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$76.92	54% 3824-3298 (7122)
BU BullishBarbCTR	Mavericksavg 36.6¢	$756.31	$805.39	+$49.08	43% 2996-4016 (7012)
TO tomb2456	Thunderavg 62¢	$322.59	$317.39	-$5.2	50% 275-273 (548)
FO Forecastication2	Thunderavg 63¢	$288.54	$279.38	-$9.16	50% 6821-6834 (13655)
RO rocky42019CTR	Mavericksavg 38¢	$130.34	$133.77	+$3.43	42% 1675-2291 (3966)
RollAwayTheDew<$100	Thunderavg 64¢	$91.76	$88.89	-$1.43	53% 319-288 (607)

takeormake

Thunder

Invested

$1,249.91

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$76.92

Record

54%

3824-3298 (7122)

BullishBarbCTR

Mavericks

Invested

$756.31

Value

$805.39

PnL

+$49.08

Record

43%

2996-4016 (7012)

tomb2456

Thunder

Invested

$322.59

Value

$317.39

PnL

-$5.2

Record

50%

275-273 (548)

Forecastication2

Thunder

Invested

$288.54

Value

$279.38

PnL

-$9.16

Record

50%

6821-6834 (13655)

rocky42019CTR

Mavericks

Invested

$130.34

Value

$133.77

PnL

+$3.43

Record

42%

1675-2291 (3966)

RollAwayTheDew<$100

Thunder

Invested

$91.76

Value

$88.89

PnL

-$1.43

Record

53%

319-288 (607)

Research grade

AvoidThunder at 61%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Thunder

4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 80%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Thunder. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mavericks) and the top 1000 (5 on Thunder) disagree here.

whaleThunder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrThunder 67% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedMavericks 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Thunder 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Thunder wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.2%

61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$58.28

Max Loss

-$100.00

158.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.