Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Mavericks, while the market favors Thunder (75%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Thunder vs. Mavericks
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Mavericks (60%) · Mavericks at 26¢ · $771 held · ends Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Mavericks
5
Mavericks 60%
$770.82
-$10.9
24.7¢ → 25.5¢
+3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidMavericks at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Thunder 75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Thunderavg 74.4¢ | $313.88 | $286.96 | -$22.7 | 90% 236-25 (261) |
RO rocky42019CTR | Mavericksavg 25¢ | $255.94 | $266.61 | +$10.67 | 42% 1673-2289 (3962) |
NI niceqqqqq3CTR | Mavericksavg 24¢ | $120 | $130 | +$2.5 | 37% 26-44 (70) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Thunderavg 75¢ | $61.84 | $60.99 | -$0.85 | 54% 2678-2303 (4981) |
 RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100 | Mavericksavg 26¢ | $26.78 | $26.27 | -$0.52 | 53% 301-270 (571) |
Invested
$313.88
Value
$286.96
PnL
-$22.7
Record
90%
236-25 (261)
Invested
$255.94
Value
$266.61
PnL
+$10.67
Record
42%
1673-2289 (3962)
Invested
$120
Value
$130
PnL
+$2.5
Record
37%
26-44 (70)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$61.84
Value
$60.99
PnL
-$0.85
Record
54%
2678-2303 (4981)
RollAwayTheDewCTR<$100Invested
$26.78
Value
$26.27
PnL
-$0.52
Record
53%
301-270 (571)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.