Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 230.5
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (20%) · Under at 55¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 20%
1 arb excluded
$3.0K
-$10.98
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 55%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 44.1¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$7.28 | 54% 17515-14719 (32234) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 44.1¢ | $682.76 | $704.37 | +$21.61 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 56¢ | $546.91 | $532.58 | -$14.33 | |
HI hi774c | Underavg 56¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | -$31.35 | 51% 4856-4597 (9453) |
 nigiri99CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $482.68 | $499.14 | +$16.46 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 44¢ | $110 | $113.75 | +$3.75 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.28 | +$0.08 | 53% 7644-6915 (14559) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 43¢ | $1.59 | $1.66 | +$0.09 | 49% 13480-14176 (27656) |
Invested
$1,229.67
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$7.28
Record
54%
17515-14719 (32234)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,170.56
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$31.35
Record
51%
4856-4597 (9453)
nigiri99CTRInvested
$482.68
Value
$499.14
PnL
+$16.46
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$110
Value
$113.75
PnL
+$3.75
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.28
PnL
+$0.08
Record
53%
7644-6915 (14559)
Invested
$1.59
Value
$1.66
PnL
+$0.09
Record
49%
13480-14176 (27656)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
54.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.