Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 228.5
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 53¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 33%
$5.9K
-$48.97
51.3¢ → 52.5¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 53%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Overavg 48.6¢ | $2.8K | $2.8K | -$56.07 | 54% 17504-14709 (32213) |
0X 0x4278F7E5CB5f2d68d204d7403270c79CB07e0E92-1762724768941 | Underavg 51¢ | $2.0K | $2.0K | +$38.56 | 59% 258-178 (436) |
HI hi774c | Underavg 52¢ | $785.42 | $785.42 | -$30.21 | 51% 4852-4594 (9446) |
HE HerdoniaCTR | Overavg 49¢ | $250.56 | $250.56 | +$0 | 54% 3475-3012 (6487) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Overavg 49¢ | $122.5 | $122.5 | -$1.25 | 58% 43585-31701 (75286) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $9.55 | $9.55 | -$0 | 57% 17226-12892 (30118) |
Invested
$2,826.96
Value
$2.8K
PnL
-$56.07
Record
54%
17504-14709 (32213)
Invested
$1,966.49
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$38.56
Record
59%
258-178 (436)
Invested
$785.42
Value
$785.42
PnL
-$30.21
Record
51%
4852-4594 (9446)
Invested
$250.56
Value
$250.56
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
3475-3012 (6487)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$122.5
Value
$122.5
PnL
-$1.25
Record
58%
43585-31701 (75286)
Invested
$9.55
Value
$9.55
PnL
-$0
Record
57%
17226-12892 (30118)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.