Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Thunder vs. Cavaliers: O/U 226.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 45¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 3
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
-$40.45
46.5¢ → 44.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100 | Overavg 54¢ | $2.8K | $2.9K | +$15.15 | 54% 17515-14719 (32234) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 54¢ | $1.9K | $2.0K | +$54.93 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 46.5¢ | $917.76 | $877.98 | -$39.78 | |
HI hi774cCTR | Underavg 47¢ | $616.08 | $589.86 | -$32.77 | 51% 4856-4597 (9453) |
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989CTR | Underavg 46¢ | $230 | $225 | -$7.5 | 53% 5752-5086 (10838) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 45¢ | $112.5 | $111.25 | +$0 | 58% 43617-31727 (75344) |
 0xheavy888CTR<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $13.8 | $13.5 | -$0.45 | 56% 7468-5986 (13454) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $8.48 | $8.8 | +$0.32 | 46% 7288-8597 (15885) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Underavg 45.3¢ | $6.8 | $6.68 | -$0.05 | 53% 7644-6915 (14559) |
Invested
$2,844.02
Value
$2.9K
PnL
+$15.15
Record
54%
17515-14719 (32234)
Both legs:
Invested
$616.08
Value
$589.86
PnL
-$32.77
Record
51%
4856-4597 (9453)
Invested
$230
Value
$225
PnL
-$7.5
Record
53%
5752-5086 (10838)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$112.5
Value
$111.25
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
43617-31727 (75344)
0xheavy888CTR<$100Invested
$13.8
Value
$13.5
PnL
-$0.45
Record
56%
7468-5986 (13454)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$8.48
Value
$8.8
PnL
+$0.32
Record
46%
7288-8597 (15885)
Invested
$6.8
Value
$6.68
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
7644-6915 (14559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.